The following diagrams are my attempt to graphically represent the possible ways our deliberation and decisions could be related in the face of determinism, chance, and non-chancy indeterminism (e.g. agent causation). There are more variations possible but I think these are the relevant ones. I’d be very interested to know if these diagrams make sense, and what people’s intuitions are about whether you could rationally deliberate while believing you were faced with a decision of each kind.
Dotted/dashed lines represent objectively chancy events.
Tn is the time now, i.e. where the deliberator thinks they are in the decision-making process.
Td is the time at which the decision will be made (this need not be a fixed time).
A, B and C are the options the agent is choosing between.
Black lines are possible paths of deliberation (their height and length don’t represent anything specific).
Figure 1: Non-chancy but indeterministic deliberation leading to a non-chancy decision.
Figure 2: Fully deterministic decision-making.
Figure 3: Non-chancy but indeterministic deliberation leading to a fatalistic decision.
Figure 4: Deterministic deliberation leading to a fatalistic decision.
Figure 5: A deliberation-insensitive chancy decision.
Figure 6: Deterministic deliberation leading to a chancy decision.
Figure 7: Non-chancy but indeterministic deliberation leading to a chancy decision.
Figure 8: Chancy deliberation leading to a chancy decision.